Breast cancer cases could reach 3.5 million annually by 2050.

The number of breast cancer cases worldwide could rise to 3.5 million per year by 2050. This is approximately one-third more than in 2023, according to a new international study reported by Euronews. The annual number of deaths is also expected to increase by about 44%, reaching 1.4 million.

The analysis by the Global Burden of Disease Study Breast Cancer Collaborators, published in The Lancet Oncology, attributes this trend primarily to population growth and aging, although incidence and mortality rates remain relatively stable.

Breast cancer remains the most common type of cancer among women globally. In 2023, it accounted for approximately one-quarter of all oncology diagnoses. Despite progress in prevention, diagnostics, and treatment, the disease continues to have a significant impact on women’s health. Approximately 2.3 million new cases and about 764,000 deaths were recorded in 2023.

The study also reports 24.1 million DALYs (disability-adjusted life years lost due to illness, disability, or premature death), placing breast cancer among the leading causes of health loss for women on a global scale.

According to the authors of the analysis, changes in lifestyle and demographic factors influence the risk of the disease. Key factors include the increasing prevalence of obesity, early onset of puberty, delayed childbirth, and later menopause.

Behavioral factors were associated with approximately 28% of the global disease burden in 2023. Notable among these are high consumption of red meat, smoking, high blood sugar, elevated body mass index, alcohol consumption, and low physical activity.

Over the past three decades, mortality and years of life lost have decreased by approximately 30% in high-income countries. Nevertheless, women in these countries still account for about 61% of all breast cancer deaths worldwide.

The highest incidence of the disease in 2023 was observed in high-income countries. These include Monaco, Andorra, France, Germany, and Ireland. In Europe, the lowest levels were reported in Albania, Ukraine, Moldova, Russia, and Bulgaria.

The authors emphasize that a higher recorded incidence does not always signify a worse situation. This is because broader access to screening, early diagnosis, and modern therapies in developed countries significantly improves survival rates. At the same time, a shift in the disease burden toward low- and middle-income countries is being observed. In these regions, diagnosis is often made at a later stage, and access to quality treatment remains limited.