Bulgaria will lose nearly 30% of its population by 2100.

The population of the European Union will decrease by approximately 53 million people by the end of the century, according to the latest Eurostat projections, Euronews reports. A decline from 452 million in 2025 to 399 million in 2100 is expected—a decrease of 11.7%, amid low birth rates and an aging population.

Despite the general trend, demographic processes in Europe are highly uneven—some countries will continue to grow, while others will lose a significant portion of their population.

Out of 30 countries analyzed, 18 are expected to report a decline by 2100, with the decrease exceeding one-third of the population in some cases.

The most significant declines are projected for:

• Latvia (–33.9%)
• Lithuania (–33.4%)
• Poland (–31.6%)
• Greece (–30.1%)

A substantial decline—over 20%—is also expected in:

• Bulgaria (–28%)
• Croatia (–27%)
• Slovakia (–26.7%)
• Romania (–24.3%)
• Italy (–24%)
• Hungary (–22.5%)

This means that in some of these countries, approximately every fourth inhabitant will be lost.

At the opposite end are countries where growth is expected, primarily due to immigration.

The largest increases are projected for:

• Luxembourg (+36.4%)
• Iceland (+27.1%)
• Malta (+26%)

Growth of over 10% is also expected in:

• Switzerland (+16.9%)
• Ireland (+14.6%)
• Norway (+11.8%)
• Sweden (+10%)

“This variation is mainly due to differences in past and future migration flows, as well as age structure,” says Tomáš Sobotka of the Vienna Institute of Demography.

According to experts, countries with low birth rates and an outflow of young people are facing faster aging and a more pronounced demographic decline.

“Migration is the only factor that can ensure population growth in Europe,” adds Dmitri Jdanov from the Max Planck Institute.

Among the largest economies in the EU, only Spain is expected to see population growth by 2100 (+1.3%).

France will remain relatively stable (–2.5%), while Germany (–10.6%) and especially Italy (–24%) will face a significant decline.

Spain is expected to overtake Italy to become the third most populous country in Europe.

Alongside the population decline, the continent will face rapid aging.

By 2100:

• The share of people over 85 will triple—from 3.2% to 10.8%
• People over 65 will reach nearly one-third of the population
• The working-age population will decrease significantly

These trends will put serious pressure on healthcare systems, pension funds, and economic growth.

Experts warn that demographic changes will require new policies—from encouraging birth rates to managing migration and adapting economies to an aging society.

Otherwise, Europe risks not only a population decline but also deep structural changes in society and the labor market.